Musings from Numbers: 7 Reasons why America's Challengers aren't Ready to Conquer the World Tomorrow

Somewhat recently, I sent a doom and gloom article about America's future to my brother. The article, written by a UW professor, lays out a pretty dim outlook for the future of U.S. power vis-à-vis other contenders, such as China, India, and the EU.

Personally, I thought the article was a bit of an exercise in hyperbole. U.S. power isn't going to erode overnight, and there are plenty reasons why. From American military power to American brain power (as evidenced by the dominance of American universities in the ARWU world rankings), the U.S. is far from crumbling.

But my brother gave an excellent response which I think bears repeating (or at least archiving in the form of posting it on this blog). It's concise and to the point, and I agree with everything he says. Below are the seven reasons he gives that point to a better future for U.S. power than some are projecting:

1. China is unwilling to accept other cultures into its "Han Empire." What worked for the U.S. in the nineteenth century (Trail of Tears, repeated treaty transgressions with Native Americans) won't work for the Chinese. The Uighurs and Tibetans can get guns, can get their message out to the world (sort of), and there are too many of them to write off. Until China welcomes these different peoples culturally it will fight (physical or cyber) against parts of its own nation, hindering growth.
2. China's policy of taking no stand in international politics helps it deal with sketchy regimes around the world, but it leaves it with little clout in Europe, America, and Japan-[South] Korea. The economic foreign policy pursued by China could be compared to the massive outflow of dollars and intelligence from the Soviet Union in the 1950s-1970s. Those countries will take the aid you give them, but ultimately, will follow where their best interests take them. Also, using economic power without military power, as it did with Japan recently (rare earth materials) doesn't solve the diplomatic issue. It just pisses a lot of people off and forces others to compete with you. For example, rare earth materials will be mined in the U.S. again by 2012 and in Australia as well. China pushed its goals and only succeeded in lessening its dominance of vital materials.
3. China holds trillions of U.S. debt. To wage war on the U.S. without replacing our consumer buying power would ruin their economy. Without a government sponsored retirement network or something else that would trigger greater spending by the Chinese population, they won't be able to replace the American consumer before their population ages prematurely due to their "One Child" policy (see point 7). This catch-22 forces accomodation for both the U.S. and Chinese. If our economy melts down through our stupidity China's takes a big, big step backward.
4. Projecting itself onto the world stage is something that China can do economically but not militarily, much like the U.S. before World War II. Unfortunately for China there doesn't look to be a large crippling war on the horizon for Europe and the U.S. (which, incidently, truly brought about the decline of Europe, that's both world wars together). China will be unable to increase its military spending and maintain its frantic economic pace at the same time without war.
5. Oil won't determine the outcome of the world's power structure in the 21st century. Water will. India doesn't have enough (water, farmland, infrstructure). These minuses will keep Delhi from truly projecting itself onto the world stage. Look at how it handled the Commonwealth Games [in 2010]. India made current Washington politicking look progressive.
6. The European Union is not a single entity. Until it has one budget and one set of elected officials its single currency will continue to hinder it. It is the eunuch of the Great Powers.
7. Falling population growth rates in Japan, Europe, and, indeed, China, where, by the 2040's, an aging European-like population will need to support the greatest number of elderly on earth with a social net (private or government sponsored) that doesn't yet exist.